Argentina: Preliminary forecasts put Argentina’s 2023 barley crop at 4.76 mln tonnes

RMI Analytics’ estimate for Argentina’s barley crop 2022 remains steady at 3.8 mln tonnes. Harvest resulted in a protein range between 11.5-13%, making it challenging to average below 12%.

The analysts’ preliminary crop 2023 forecast is reduced to 4.76 mln tonnes as competition from wheat is expected to be fierce for 2023 planted area.

Input costs for crop 2022 were very high and farmers remain concerned, as they look ahead to crop 2023 and a reduction in inputs to reduce costs is a possible scenario.

Argentina barley prices are down slightly in a quiet market, as the smaller crop and variable quality have the trade reluctant to aggressively sell. China demand is absent as CNY takes place and farmers are not selling anyways.

Declared export licences are 1.4 mln tonnes with another 0.4 mln needed for South American demand, leading to the RMI Analytics’ estimate of a reduced export volume at 2.2 mln tonnes.

China and Australia trade negotiations are a concern regarding crop 2023, where there could be reduced demand from China.

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